Zhou Laojiao (000568): Steady performance and bright eye-catching price increase

Zhou Laojiao (000568): Steady performance and bright eye-catching price increase

Report Summary: Events: The company’s third quarterly report showed steady and rapid growth, in line with expectations.

The company achieved revenue of 114 in Q1 to Q3.

770,000 yuan, +23 for ten years.

9%, net profit 37.

95 ppm, +37 a year.

96%, net cash flow from operating activities +47 per year.

85%.

Among them, the single third quarter revenue was +10 for ten years.

86%, net profit +35 per year.

5%.

  The volume of high-end and mid-range wines is the result of the continuous and rapid growth in revenue. In the first half of the year, mid-range wine special songs achieved the volume by the power of channels.As of October, the national cellar 1573 single product successfully exceeded 10 billion.

The steady expansion of the region has brought about an increase in volume. Since the 18th round of the “Eastward and Southward Map” battle of Luzhou Laojiao, it has successfully achieved East China and South China sales have broken.

  Special song + Guojiao 1573 have raised prices, combined reasonable control fees, and the performance of the profit side is dazzling.

Gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 19 was 81.

07%, an annual increase of 4.

At 14pct, the gross profit margins in the three quarters were all up month-on-month, mainly due to price increases and product structure changes.

In terms of price increase, the value of mid-range wine specials returns, the price stands at a historical high, and is steadily placed in the mid-range price band market (200-400 yuan); Guojiao 1573 still follows the Maotai strategy in the high-end wine market, and Maotai raised prices in the first half of the year.To give the company room for further price increases, in July the company made 43-degree, 46-degree Guojiao 1573 and other breakthrough price increases, and recently issued a 南京桑拿论坛 52-degree Guojiao 1573 classic package price notice again, high-end wine steadily increasedPrice and profit margins.

In terms of product structure, the volume of Guojiao 1573 increased the special song, and the proportion of high-end wines may increase to increase the overall gross profit margin.

  Expenses in the first three quarters remained stable, and the expense ratio increased in the third quarter alone.

The first three quarters of 19 sales expense ratio was 22.

7%, all the same as last year.

19Q1-Q3 sales expense ratios were 16 respectively.

9% / 21.

7% / 30.

8%, showing an upward trend.

Accounts receivable decreased by 26 during the third quarter.

1%, the prepayment increased by 18%, the company may face competition pressure in some mature regions, and actively spend expenses to expand new regional markets, but the company’s control fees are gradually offset, and the expense side is expected to be stable in 19 years.

  High- and mid-range products have steadily increased their prices, and their expenses have been stable, which has ensured the company’s continued growth in profit.

07%, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

37 points.

  Relying on the advantages of channel management, the price increase policy for high and mid-range wines has steadily landed.

The price increase of high-end and mid-range wines is smooth, the terminal policy has been implemented and no change in sales has occurred, which is mainly due to the company’s strong channel management and control ability, which is reflected in the channel expansion ability and control ability.

The channel reform has achieved initial results. The company’s management team has mature and rich management experience and a stable membership structure. It has made breakthroughs in channel rectification and made great efforts to reduce the number of operators. This has ensured the smooth price increase of high- and mid-range wines.Guided by the top three goals, high- and mid-range wines are growing strongly.

  The volume of high-end wine country cellar 1573 is still the company’s long-term focus. The company will make full use of the advantages of the channel side to continue to make efforts, and the growth of high-end wine can be expected in the future.

The high-end wine production capacity will be gradually released in the future. In the future, the company’s 7.4 billion brewing engineering technological transformation projects will continue with 60% of the 2019H1 project progress. The construction in progress at the end of the third quarter will increase by 95% earlier. The construction of the project will proceed as planned.The old cellar pool, which was originally used to produce mid-end products, can be replaced to focus on the production of national cellar 1573 base wine, and the growth of high-end wine production capacity will support the company’s volume strategy.

  Profit forecast: The advantage of channel management and control is the foundation, and the expansion of high-end wine production capacity is the guarantee in the future. The brand building of “Special Qu + State Reserve 1573” is a weapon, and we are optimistic about the company’s sustained strong performance growth.

It is expected that the company’s revenue in 19-21 will be 162.

83/196.94/238.

400,000 yuan, an increase of 24 in ten years.

72% / 20.

95% / 21.

05%, the expected net profit is 48.

71/63.

09/80.

3.6 billion, an annual increase of 38.

77% / 29.

51% / 27.

36%, budget benefit 3.

31, 4.

28, 5.

47 yuan, giving a 28X estimate for 2020, corresponding to a target price of 119.

84 yuan, 40% growth space, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.

  Risk warning: The price of premium wine has fallen below expectations, regional expansion has fallen short of expectations, and production capacity has shifted.